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Unread 2015-12-07, 02:49 PM   #1
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Default Royals 2016

Since the 2015 season is in the books, it's time to begin a new thread for our beloved boys in blue.

It was announced today that Chris Young has been resigned in a year deal.

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While his profile might leave him exposed in the more homer-friendly confines of a park like Coors Field, Great American Ballpark, or whatever they call Rangers Ballpark now, Young clearly fits in ideally at a park like Kauffman Stadium and with a defense like the Royals', barring a paradigm shift in the way the organization is run.

Much of the reason for Young only being able to command a two-year deal on the open market after a second-straight season in which he sported an ERA comfortably below 4.00 (3.06!) is his long history of injuries that kept him off the field for anywhere between a huge chunk and the virtual entirety of every year between 2008 and 2013, though much of that time missed was due to thoracic outlet syndrome as detailed by the Star's Andy McCullough (RIP) here.

While his questionable record of health explains why he signed for just two year, it is his particular set of [undervalued] skills that helped contribute to what is likely a steal for a second straight offseason for Dayton Moore. Yes, the $675K base-salary that Young agreed to last March (which increased considerably with incentives hit) was considerably less than what he got this time around, but Young's extreme profile makes comparing him to other pitchers nearly impossible.

As has been discussed in these pages often, Chris Young is the most extreme fly-ball pitcher in baseball. This owes largely to the fact that the man stands nearly seven feet tall, though his pitching style is anything but accidental.

Of pitchers with at least 700 innings thrown since 2006*, Chris Young's 56.4 FB% is nearly nine percentage points higher than the next highest pitcher, Jered Weaver at 47.6%.

*The reason for starting at 2006 is that this is the first year in which Chris Young became the Chris Young we know now. He scrapped the curveball, replaced it with the slider, and started induced 50%+ FB-rates.

His .239 BABIP since 2006 is the lowest mark of any pitcher with at least 700 IP (a mark designed to eliminate relievers from the discussion) by .022, Marco Estrada at .261. This, of course, owes itself largely to that fact that of batted balls, fly balls enjoy just a .207 BA. For comparison, grounders yield a .239 BA and liners a .685 BA. Yes, fly balls lend themselves to a .335 wOBA, compared to just .220 for ground balls (for more batted-ball information go here).

Of course not all fly balls are born equal. Using the same 700 inning minimum since 2006, Young's IFFB% of 15.3% is higher than anyone else by 1.6 percentage points (Ted Lilly, with Wade Davis 0.1 behind him).

Now that gap in IFFB% may not seem that huge, but it is important to keep in mind the fact that IFFB% is the percentage of fly balls induced that are infield fly balls. Young has the highest percentage of fly balls that end up as a virtually automatic out (infield fly balls) and induces the most fly balls by a wide margin.

To put this into scope, over the past two seasons, Chris Young led all pitchers with 73 IFFB induced. R.A. Dickey--another outlier for different reasons--was next closest with 68. Without context, that seems pretty close. Of course, Dickey needed 430 innings to induce 68 IFFB. Young needed just 288.1 innings to record 73. When turning IFFB into a rate stat, the leaderboard for the past two seasons (min. 150 IP) looks like this:

Pitcher IFFB/9
Chris Young 2.28
Danny Duffy 1.73
Marco Estrada 1.63
Tommy Milone 1.61
Drew Smyly 1.60
Hector Santiago 1.55
Jered Weaver 1.55
Justin Verlander 1.43
R.A. Dickey 1.42
Trevor May 1.41
By the time you get to number 18 on the list, you are over a full IFFB less per nine than Young.

Since 2006, Young is sixth in total IFFB at 240, within 40 of each man ahead of him on the list but Jered Weaver, despite throwing at least 798.1 fewer innings than any of those pitchers. In two separate seasons, Young induced at least 40 IFFB. Broken into a rate stat, his 2.21 IFFB/9 since 2006 is 0.46 better than the next closest man with at least 700 IP (Tim Wakefield, 1.75 IFFB/9).

When looking at pitchers with at least 150 IP pitched in the last two seasons in terms of the non-HR things they can control using the formula (K+IFFB)/(BB+HBP), Young's 2.49 mark puts him just behind Carlos Martinez, Eric Stults, Lance Lynn, Homer Bailey, and Francisco Liriano and right ahead of Travis Wood, Tyson Ross, Brett Anderson, Aaron Harang, Mike Bolsinger, and Yordano Ventura. Less than fifteen spots ahead of Young on this list are guys like Garrett Richards, Michael Wacha, and Sonny Gray. That 2.49 mark also puts him ahead of Danny Duffy, Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, and Jeremy Guthrie. Any of these pitchers who signed deals in free agency signed for considerably more than Young is getting. Only the 60-day disabled Jason Vargas ranked ahead of him from the pool of Royals' starting pitchers (wild card Kris Medlen excepted for lack of playing time).

While his HR/FB% (8.1% career, 8.3% 2014-2015) looks palatable at first glance, it too needs to be brought to scale against his astronomically high FB%. Basically, it needs to be looked at as a rate stat. The 1.31 HR/9 Young notched over the last two years certainly hurts his cause and doesn't come into play in the figuring of his FIP, but finding his true-talent level using any of the publicly available metrics is a near impossibility because of how hard his skill-set is to consider in the calculation of these metrics.

While finding his true-talent level is problematic for us when we talk about Young, that fact probably helps the Royals out in the end. How does one account for the odd duck that is Chris Young? Apparently a lot of teams are unsure of how to go about that. How does one weigh his unique profile and tendencies against orthodox baseball thinking or against the ways by which the sabermetric community has come to comparatively analyze players? Clearly a metric like fWAR is going to underrate Young by the sheer nature of not being able to fully account for how much less likely a batted ball is going to land for a hit for Young than it would with any other pitcher. After all, how does one account for a .239 BABIP over the last ten years when no one else is particularly close to that mark?

Whatever limitations we might have in attempting to make sense of Chris Young, his status as the furthest outlying of outliers certainly helps Dayton Moore and the Royals out when it comes to getting bang for their buck with the gigantic Princetonian. That they're paying less than the cost of 1 WAR for a free agent fairly likely to give them surplus value cannot be deemed anything less than win.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2015/12/...-two-year-deal
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Unread 2015-12-07, 02:57 PM   #2
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I saw that Zobrist will want 15-17 per year in a deal. Also that that amount is too much for the royals. Pretty much gone unless he comes down to 11-13 imo.

Same with Gordon. He declined the qualifying offer of 15 mil a year and wants closer to 20. We will get compensated if he goes elsewhere.

Looking pretty likely that Gordon, Zobrist and Cueto are all gone. Along with Rios and a couple others. Sucks but it was a pipe dream to keep the team the same.
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Unread 2015-12-07, 03:00 PM   #3
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I saw that Zobrist will want 15-17 per year in a deal. Also that that amount is too much for the royals. Pretty much gone unless he comes down to 11-13 imo.

Same with Gordon. He declined the qualifying offer of 15 mil a year and wants closer to 20. We will get compensated if he goes elsewhere.

Looking pretty likely that Gordon, Zobrist and Cueto are all gone. Along with Rios and a couple others. Sucks but it was a pipe dream to keep the team the same.
From what I am reading Cueto and Zobrist are all but gone, but Gordon still remains an option.
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Unread 2015-12-07, 04:03 PM   #4
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Giants fans think they're getting Gordon.
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Unread 2015-12-07, 05:56 PM   #5
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Unread 2015-12-07, 06:57 PM   #6
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I'm all for Young, but I don't understand the Soria signing. I feel like the money could have been used elsewhere.
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Unread 2015-12-07, 07:02 PM   #7
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I'm all for Young, but I don't understand the Soria signing. I feel like the money could have been used elsewhere.
Completely agree. Although I think it could have a bigger meaning.

Maybe Holland isn't doing well and is being seen as done. Maybe Davis is being traded and Soria is being brought in since they like having multiple closers for the late innings.

If we traded Davis for someone big that has some years left on a contract and brought in Soria to take his spot then I could see it being a decent move pending who the player is and what it costs us. Herrera, Madson and Soria in the late innings until Holland is fully healthy. Wouldn't be terrible at all....depending on who we get for Davis.

Or it could simply be an added arm to the closing rotation. Lol
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Unread 2015-12-07, 07:09 PM   #8
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Holland is no longer a Royal. Soria basically just replaced Madson. I think we can replace one OF spot within but I doubt we can replace both corner spots within. We also need a starting pitcher.
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Unread 2015-12-07, 07:24 PM   #9
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Quote:
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Holland is no longer a Royal. Soria basically just replaced Madson. I think we can replace one OF spot within but I doubt we can replace both corner spots within. We also need a starting pitcher.
True, although the main reason we let him enter free agency is because of how expensive he would have been to just sit there since he was gonna get a rather large bump through arbitration.

The thought is he will get a multi year deal where he doesn't hit us for much this year and will pitch again in 2017. It's expect he won't pitch at all in 2016.


I guess I completely missed Madson signing with the A's. Not upset that he's gone.
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Unread 2015-12-08, 08:16 PM   #10
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Ben Zobrist to the Cubs. 4-year, $56 million contract. Hate to see him go, but good for him.

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Unread 2015-12-08, 08:16 PM   #11
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Zobrist agrees with Cubs on 4 year 56 million deal.

14 mil a year is a little much for him imo. I'm fine with him leaving.
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Unread 2015-12-08, 10:02 PM   #12
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I can't blame him. He is basically going home to play for the manager he knows the best. Sucks because $14M a year isn't that much but I honestly think we need Gordon more.
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Unread 2015-12-10, 12:40 AM   #13
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Greeeeaaaattt.

Brett Lawrie to the white sox. Now we have to see that fuck tard even more in a season.
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Unread 2015-12-14, 05:16 PM   #14
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Cueto signs 6yrs/$130 million with the Giants.

Damn, that World Series tax is pretty high. I called it though that he would go back to the nationally league.

Hopefully we can get a good arm in there. Not sure who we will get though.
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Unread 2016-01-06, 09:42 AM   #15
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Alex Gordon signs four-year deal with Royals








Alex Gordon has re-signed with the Royals according to sources. Royals Review has learned it is a deal worth around four years, $70 million.
At the outset of free agency, it was thought Gordon could command a deal as large as $100 million. The Royals had been said to "lowballing" Gordon with a four-year offer worth $12-13 million per year. Reports surfaced that the Royals had "no chance" to re-sign Gordon with what they were offered. Gordon refuted that report, saying there was a chance he could return to Kansas City.
Alex Gordon will turn 32 by Opening Day and is coming off a season in which he missed two months with a groin injury. He hit .271/.377/.432 for the season with 13 HR 48 RBI in 104 games. He was originally the second overall pick by the Royals in the 2005 draft. He was in the big leagues by 2007, although he struggled initially. Gordon battled injuries and a demotion, but his career really took off in 2011 when he moved to left field. He hit a career-high 23 home runs that year with a line of .303/.376/.502, earning his first Gold Glove. Gordon would lead the league in doubles the next year with 51, tied for the second-highest total in franchise history after Hal McRae's 54 in 1977.
Gordon won four consecutive Gold Gloves from 2011-2014, and has been selected to three consecutive All-Star appearances from 2013-2015. In nine seasons with the Royals, he is a career .269/.348/.435 hitter with 134 home runs and 31.8 WAR. He is ninth in franchise history in games played, eighth in hits, and is the fifth-highest ranked position player in WAR.
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Unread 2016-01-06, 09:46 AM   #16
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Thank god
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Unread 2016-01-06, 10:09 AM   #17
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Baseball Jesus is righteous.
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Unread 2016-01-17, 04:33 PM   #18
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Royals agree to a deal with Ian Kennedy for 5yr $70mil, he can opt out after 2 years.
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Unread 2016-01-17, 05:02 PM   #19
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Whoa. That's a lot of money for him imo. Big big gamble.
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Unread 2016-01-17, 06:36 PM   #20
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There's an opt out clause after years. And he should do much better behind a great defense and a pitcher friendly park. He has a very good strike out percentage as well. Too many walks though.
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Unread 2016-01-19, 04:03 PM   #21
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Schedule was released

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Unread 2016-01-20, 12:06 PM   #22
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Hoping to get tickets to the Seattle game so Zach can wear his royals gear. Though I'll have to sit between him and his mom.
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Unread 2016-02-17, 11:37 AM   #23
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Royals have decided to extend the safety net behind home plate to the end of both dugouts for the 2016 season. Kinda sucks but I think everyone knew it was going to happen sooner or later.
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Unread 2016-02-17, 03:36 PM   #24
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I'm wondering if they will lower the desirability of those seats and ultimately the price. I know for me id rather sit in row A of the upper level vs being behind a net down low. Unless it's in crown club or something of course.
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Unread 2016-02-17, 03:41 PM   #25
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My company has seats 3 rows behind the net and you don't even notice it TBH.
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