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Unread 2011-01-13, 04:05 PM   #1
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Default More Forclosed homes looming in the future

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41059824


Think things are bad now? It's gonna get worse before it gets any better. Those jobless claims that they said were on the decrease, I suspect , people have just ran their course with unemployment. And now we are gonna see the house prices fall even more so!!
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Unread 2011-01-13, 04:37 PM   #2
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Sadly its only happening in areas that are already horrifically depressed. Shit is still expensive as fuck here but if you wanted to live in Toledo, OH you could get 4000sq-ft for a song.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 01:35 PM   #3
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As shitty as it is to say, I hope this keeps up for 3 or 4 more years, I'll be (hopefully) looking to buy around then.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 02:26 PM   #4
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As shitty as it is to say, I hope this keeps up for 3 or 4 more years, I'll be (hopefully) looking to buy around then.
I would not be surprised if it is. As I see things they are going to get alot worse in America before they get better.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 03:57 PM   #5
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As shitty as it is to say, I hope this keeps up for 3 or 4 more years, I'll be (hopefully) looking to buy around then.
The only issue is that by then interest rates will be up to like 15% because of the hyperinflation that is coming...
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Unread 2011-01-16, 05:36 PM   #6
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housing market will hit bottom at the end of this year.. if you're thinking about buying this year would be a good one..... before interest rates go up, and while the housing market bottoms out.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 06:34 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by redhot916spd View Post
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41059824


Think things are bad now? It's gonna get worse before it gets any better. Those jobless claims that they said were on the decrease, I suspect , people have just ran their course with unemployment. And now we are gonna see the house prices fall even more so!!

Unemployment IS going down in real terms as well. The non-farm payroll numbers are on the rise, and have been for a while. This measures the number of people actually collecting a paycheck and is therefore not influenced by people slipping off "unemployment" simply because they ran out.

Things are actually really looking up. Companies are profitable, and are starting to hire back people that were laid off. Also, now that companies are profitable they are starting to replace/repair/do things that they have been putting off for the last two years. For example MANY companies haven't upgraded computers/electronics since the drop and are starting to do so which generates tech jobs, same thing with business infrastructure/maintenance/etc. companies cut back when things were lean and are starting to spend again now that profits are back.

Previously we were seeing companies turning profits because of budget cutting, but now profits are up from revenue (not just expense cuts). I've seen many many people getting new jobs over the last 3 months (many from my office getting 'offers they can't refuse' from other companies, as well as just a lot of people I know finding new/better jobs). I think we are legitimately on the up swing.

I would expect to see the housing market here start to fire starting this spring as employment comes back and people rush to beat the coming interest rate hikes.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 06:43 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Ryan Stewart View Post
Sadly its only happening in areas that are already horrifically depressed. Shit is still expensive as fuck here but if you wanted to live in Toledo, OH you could get 4000sq-ft for a song.
This.

There are still going to be a lot of foreclosures, but mainly confined to areas where either the bubble was very big, or where circumstances lead to the local economy taking an extra large shit. Kansas City falls into neither of those categories.

California, Florida, Nevada, New York, Detroit, etc. are all still turbo-fucked. Kansas City is one of the cheapest places to live in the country when you compare how much it cost to live here vs. how much people make.

People that want to buy in KC in the next year or so need to get their shit going this spring, because all the signs in KC point to the "worst" (such as it was) being over.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 09:32 PM   #9
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This.

There are still going to be a lot of foreclosures, but mainly confined to areas where either the bubble was very big, or where circumstances lead to the local economy taking an extra large shit. Kansas City falls into neither of those categories.

California, Florida, Nevada, New York, Detroit, etc. are all still turbo-fucked. Kansas City is one of the cheapest places to live in the country when you compare how much it cost to live here vs. how much people make.

People that want to buy in KC in the next year or so need to get their shit going this spring, because all the signs in KC point to the "worst" (such as it was) being over.
85% of the people in the country live on the coasts , if you watch 60 minutes the people who predicted the mortgage meltdown said 2013 before we start to see daylight. The largest employer in the USA aside from the gov't is Walmart of those people I think it is 54% actually get health ins., 14 trillion in debt and the we are printing more and more money diluting our dollar, the stock market is up for now and I predict it will be until the 3rd quarter this year, then you will see our market crash down again. this up market is head fake. drive around and look at all the empty businesses, you think reit's are going to report great numbers? I don't
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Unread 2011-01-16, 10:32 PM   #10
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85% of the people in the country live on the coasts , if you watch 60 minutes the people who predicted the mortgage meltdown said 2013 before we start to see daylight. The largest employer in the USA aside from the gov't is Walmart of those people I think it is 54% actually get health ins., 14 trillion in debt and the we are printing more and more money diluting our dollar, the stock market is up for now and I predict it will be until the 3rd quarter this year, then you will see our market crash down again. this up market is head fake. drive around and look at all the empty businesses, you think reit's are going to report great numbers? I don't
This is the real problem. If our dollar no longer becomes the worlds reserve currency things have the potential to get REALLY, REALLY bad here...
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Unread 2011-01-16, 10:44 PM   #11
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the stock market is up for now and I predict it will be until the 3rd quarter this year, then you will see our market crash down again. this up market is head fake.
Based on what?
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Unread 2011-01-16, 10:55 PM   #12
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This is the real problem. If our dollar no longer becomes the worlds reserve currency things have the potential to get REALLY, REALLY bad here...

The dollar is doing no worse now than it was 5-8 years ago against most currencies. Hell, the dollar is 25% stronger vs. the GBP than it was 6 years ago. The dollar has just slumped back down close to where it was prior to becoming the safety currency during the financial crisis.

And really, the dollar falling back down will help boost US exports, which is desperately needed to create more jobs in the US.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 11:07 PM   #13
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This is the real problem. If our dollar no longer becomes the worlds reserve currency things have the potential to get REALLY, REALLY bad here...
A cheaper dollar makes imports more expensive, which kills the incentive to build products overseas.

A cheaper dollar makes it easier to pay our debt.

A cheaper dollar makes our exports more attractive.

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People that want to buy in KC in the next year or so need to get their shit going this spring, because all the signs in KC point to the "worst" (such as it was) being over.
I agree with this. We've looked at houses for 2-3 years, with no real sense of urgency because we really don't need to move and we didn't know when the market would bottom out. I think that this spring may hold level and represent the bottom.
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Unread 2011-01-16, 11:47 PM   #14
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I hope housing prices keep coming down too.

I'm looking to buy in the next year or so, out here in Las Vegas.

2200+ sq ft homes, built in 04-08, in nice areas, for $125,000.


YES.

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Unread 2011-01-17, 08:39 AM   #15
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on a macro scale a cheap dollar also makes oil crazy expensive and the serious great paying jobs that we would see in manufacturing of things very expensive to do, its the yin and yang of things,, why will we see the market fall on its ass because the money machine will stop printing.

couple that with the info that is coming out there http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70G2FR20110117


oil reserves are shrinking, consumer demand around the world keeps oil goes higher, becomes more expensive to operate for everyone , inflation goes higher, more businesses collapse due to costs, its like water swirling down a toilet

call me a permabear , but I think the market is really different than what we witnessed during the 90's . During that growth period when I bought my truck, diesel was 99 cents. My phone was ringing off the hook. Things are very very slow now.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUuROWEMjm0

according to them this forclosure is going to be peaking this year

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Unread 2011-01-17, 10:25 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by redhot916spd View Post
on a macro scale a cheap dollar also makes oil crazy expensive and the serious great paying jobs that we would see in manufacturing of things very expensive to do, its the yin and yang of things,, why will we see the market fall on its ass because the money machine will stop printing.

couple that with the info that is coming out there http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70G2FR20110117


oil reserves are shrinking, consumer demand around the world keeps oil goes higher, becomes more expensive to operate for everyone , inflation goes higher, more businesses collapse due to costs, its like water swirling down a toilet

call me a permabear , but I think the market is really different than what we witnessed during the 90's . During that growth period when I bought my truck, diesel was 99 cents. My phone was ringing off the hook. Things are very very slow now.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUuROWEMjm0

according to them this forclosure is going to be peaking this year


1) That youtube video is over 2 years old. Most of those predictions are now priced into the market. I've personally see the write down figures of one MAJOR bank as well as their financial models if there is a double dip (and their projected likelihood of that happening), and they have already priced in weighted reserves for that eventuality. Basically, the effect of potential future foreclosures are already booked in the financial statements.

2) Here are the projections of the Dept. of Energy:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

They are not anticipating $100 oil until maybe 2013.

The price of oil is going to be driven by financial recovery, not the other way around.
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Unread 2011-01-17, 02:13 PM   #17
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1) That youtube video is over 2 years old. Most of those predictions are now priced into the market. I've personally see the write down figures of one MAJOR bank as well as their financial models if there is a double dip (and their projected likelihood of that happening), and they have already priced in weighted reserves for that eventuality. Basically, the effect of potential future foreclosures are already booked in the financial statements.

2) Here are the projections of the Dept. of Energy:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

They are not anticipating $100 oil until maybe 2013.

The price of oil is going to be driven by financial recovery, not the other way around.
no the cost of oil is driven by hedge fund managers and how and when they buy up the futures, that is what swings the oil market and couple that with a diluting dollar which buys less oil per barrel you are gonna see prices over 100 by June, look at this chart for april

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...crude-oil.html

They are not producing more either and we were at 10 month lows as of 30 days ago in the national reserve. look at how fast that is ramping up. The best predictor of the future is past behavior. Anywho that is how I am playing it. Getting out slightly before they stop printing money. I expect another fall in the market because as I look around me I see no major ramp up in businesses around me.
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Unread 2011-01-17, 03:13 PM   #18
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no the cost of oil is driven by hedge fund managers and how and when they buy up the futures, that is what swings the oil market and couple that with a diluting dollar which buys less oil per barrel you are gonna see prices over 100 by June, look at this chart for april

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...crude-oil.html
What exactly do you think you are looking at here?

The last settled price for a April future (per that link/site) was $92.85 which was down $0.70 from the previous trade. Hell, looking all the way out to December 2016 on that site there isn't a single future that has traded above $96.65. How exactly do you see that as supporting your $100+ prediction?


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I expect another fall in the market because as I look around me I see no major ramp up in businesses around me.
Do you see any zebra's when you look around you? Does that mean zebras don't exist?
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Unread 2011-01-17, 03:38 PM   #19
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What exactly do you think you are looking at here?

The last settled price for a April future (per that link/site) was $92.85 which was down $0.70 from the previous trade. Hell, looking all the way out to December 2016 on that site there isn't a single future that has traded above $96.65. How exactly do you see that as supporting your $100+ prediction?




Do you see any zebra's when you look around you? Does that mean zebras don't exist?
Can't you see that from Oct to Now that its risen just shy of 20%?
to that last statement ,I'd like to stay on the current subject of business not talk about random analogies. You say the the market is always looking into the future, and the is the standard double talk the wall street types have been programmed to say to us lay people. I have heard it spoken many times. But here is some pretty damning news about the market, VOLUME!. The volume of what is being poured in the market is not shit compared to what it was 20 years ago. Couple that will all the jobs that were union and paid enough to invest in the future have left on a ship to china. 1/3rd of this country are elderly and sapping the system(useing the system for retirement) , the other 1/3rd is under 21 not earning shit, and the other 1/3rd self included are strapped trying to pay for tab that used to be covered by 6-7 people is now covered by 1.1 persons.

Those numbers add up to failure, and again that is why I see this whole market as a head fake
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Unread 2011-01-17, 04:32 PM   #20
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Can't you see that from Oct to Now that its risen just shy of 20%?
to that last statement ,I'd like to stay on the current subject of business not talk about random analogies. You say the the market is always looking into the future, and the is the standard double talk the wall street types have been programmed to say to us lay people. I have heard it spoken many times. But here is some pretty damning news about the market, VOLUME!. The volume of what is being poured in the market is not shit compared to what it was 20 years ago.
So you see the fact that oils is up 20% from Oct to Nov as a sign that it will continue to rise, but you see the fact that the market is up nearly 25% since June as a sign that it will fall?

Also, what are you talking about "volume"? Market volume it twice as much as it was 5 years ago and orders of magnitude larger than it was 20 years ago.
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Unread 2011-01-17, 04:36 PM   #21
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Unread 2011-01-17, 06:59 PM   #22
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So you see the fact that oils is up 20% from Oct to Nov as a sign that it will continue to rise, but you see the fact that the market is up nearly 25% since June as a sign that it will fall?

Also, what are you talking about "volume"? Market volume it twice as much as it was 5 years ago and orders of magnitude larger than it was 20 years ago.
Gulf oil Ceo comes out and says it going higher, its going higher. The market is going higher because the US is buying up Tbonds diluting the dollar and in effect fucking the chinese , they didn't wanna play ball regarding their money anyway.the CEO predicted this shit pretty well when it fell last time, it went to 29 barrel. http://www.patriotledger.com/busines...s-prices-ahead.

Pretty damn close in my book. The S and P closed at 1293 , in the last 11 years the resistance level was 1527 and 1561 respectively, which means we are more than half way up the market anyways,before it fallsl on its ass again. And things are not nearly as good as they were in 2000 and 2008.

The charts I am looking at and from watching CNBC the guys on their saying this new low volume is the standard these days. I don't know what you are looking at regarding volume. Walmart is the standard for employment in America, its the largest employer. Look at them, 9.50/hr for 35 hours a week.

I'm walking through the largest lumber yards in the city and they are not doing 10% of what they did 3 years ago. Brother in law works for a medium size lumber company here in town they are hanging on by a string. US Gypsum production is way down. Every where I look at large industry they are closing the doors and the shit is leaving the country. This is not something I make up to argue about its what I see relative to housing and industry around me. Warren Buffet made a giant purchase of USGypsum at 40/share here is what it closed at.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=usg

You wanna tell me one of wall streets best knows what is up? That purchase was made back in 07. I knew then what was going on at the ground level because I saw my brother in laws company laying them men off, they had a lil over 100 and they have 40-45 now. There are 3 drivers delivering where there were 8 and most days it can be handled by 2 he says.
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Unread 2011-01-17, 07:46 PM   #23
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So you see the fact that oils is up 20% from Oct to Nov as a sign that it will continue to rise, but you see the fact that the market is up nearly 25% since June as a sign that it will fall?

Also, what are you talking about "volume"? Market volume it twice as much as it was 5 years ago and orders of magnitude larger than it was 20 years ago.
It happend the last time we had a huge crash, in 37 I believe it was. Ramped right back up just like we have seen, and then crashed all the way down to lower than the first crash.

My biggest concern is the devaluation of our dollar. There is a reason that more and more places are accepting other currency than the dollar. There is a reason why China is divesting itself of our dollar. There is a reason local currencies like Berkshares are being created.

I am certainly not the economist you are by even the slightest, but what I don't like is how we are trying to print our way out of this mess, and I think that is not going to be the solution.

Everyone keeps talking about this impending disaster, and I don't think it has anything to do with terrorists, or the weather, or the stock market. I think it all may have to do with our currency...
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Unread 2011-01-17, 08:06 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by redhot916spd View Post
Gulf oil Ceo comes out and says it going higher, its going higher. The market is going higher because the US is buying up Tbonds diluting the dollar and in effect fucking the chinese , they didn't wanna play ball regarding their money anyway.the CEO predicted this shit pretty well when it fell last time, it went to 29 barrel. http://www.patriotledger.com/busines...s-prices-ahead.

Pretty damn close in my book. The S and P closed at 1293 , in the last 11 years the resistance level was 1527 and 1561 respectively, which means we are more than half way up the market anyways,before it fallsl on its ass again. And things are not nearly as good as they were in 2000 and 2008.

The charts I am looking at and from watching CNBC the guys on their saying this new low volume is the standard these days. I don't know what you are looking at regarding volume. Walmart is the standard for employment in America, its the largest employer. Look at them, 9.50/hr for 35 hours a week.

I'm walking through the largest lumber yards in the city and they are not doing 10% of what they did 3 years ago. Brother in law works for a medium size lumber company here in town they are hanging on by a string. US Gypsum production is way down. Every where I look at large industry they are closing the doors and the shit is leaving the country. This is not something I make up to argue about its what I see relative to housing and industry around me. Warren Buffet made a giant purchase of USGypsum at 40/share here is what it closed at.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=usg

You wanna tell me one of wall streets best knows what is up? That purchase was made back in 07. I knew then what was going on at the ground level because I saw my brother in laws company laying them men off, they had a lil over 100 and they have 40-45 now. There are 3 drivers delivering where there were 8 and most days it can be handled by 2 he says.
You're primarily relying on anecdotal evidence to form your opinion. Anecdotal rarely coincides with reality. Sure, you can give your evidence of specific businesses struggling, just like I can give examples of businesses thriving in similar or related industries.
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Unread 2011-01-17, 08:14 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan D View Post
You're primarily relying on anecdotal evidence to form your opinion. Anecdotal rarely coincides with reality. Sure, you can give your evidence of specific businesses struggling, just like I can give examples of businesses thriving in similar or related industries.
if you have some evidence of commodities related to housing/industry that is booming I would love for you to share it. All I can speak from is my experience and what I see. The evidence I posted if you have not looked above is not fantasy or anecdotal. If you are going to add to the debate please list your evidence for your side. I am listening/learning to everything I see/hear. I think of things in terms of decades and what I saw growing up and what I see happening. I'm seeing patterns through in long periods of time.
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