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Unread 2017-10-03, 12:49 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Dave B View Post
Didn't the gunfire go on for over 30 minutes though? When people are being indiscriminately shot and having upper body wombs, wouldn't one think this is coming from a high point, thus a police officer should look upwards within a few minutes. Given the rapid fire and that it's at night, couldn't one could see the flashes from both the gun and it lighting up the room? Wouldn't security and parking staff at the hotel see and hear a window breaking and gunshots coming directly above them and see the flashes? Perhaps I've got too much Hollywood on the brain. I've never shot a gun at night to see the amount of flash given off.

In this day and age though, the lack of imagination for concert and related venues, schools, public places, etc. have regarding security (or the lack thereof) is boggling to me. Lack of imagination is what got us into trouble in 9/11, Sandy Hook, Miami, etc. I recently went to a concert at Arrowhead and the security was crazy lax. Everyone was setting off the metal detectors, but were still getting waved through. Point is, we're still not taking security seriously in this country.
1. There isn't a clear timeline of how long the shooting actually went on. Most accounts say 10-15 min, coming in 10-15 second intervals. My math puts the guy laying down about 300 rounds per min for a total of around 4500 rounds fired.

2. It's not instinct to look up when you hear gunfire. No one does, unless you're trained for it. Cops don't go through fucking military training. Even so, the shots were coming from about 1000ft away. That's also not something people considered. When you hear gunfire you usually think it's close. In the videos, it was echoing so badly that's why you see people just hunker down. You could tell they were thinking to not get hit by a stray round vs them being the targets.

3. Have you been on the Vegas Strip at night? It's as bright as day. It's not like the shooter was out in the desert in blackout conditions. The Mandalay's windows are fucking gold and light is reflecting off of them. The Luxor has a damn spot light on it so bright it can be seen from space. Then there is the concert lighting. Lights lights everywhere. You aren't going to notice a broken window or two at 300+ yards that's another 100+ yards above your head. So I think you're right, too much Hollywood.

4. By the time first responders were on scene (for a shooting at the concert grounds), you can assume 8 minutes had passed. So he's already popped off a couple thousand rounds. As long as they are packed together he's gonna get kills. He's beyond the effective range of an AR firing .223 and at the edge of range shooting .308. It's the amount of lead he through out that allowed him to get kills.

Once the crowd started scattering it's likely his kill rate dropped. Or he started taking single shots rather than the full auto shit, and that would make him more difficult to spot.

Cops had already cleared like 1 or 2 floors of the hotel before the fire alarm kicked off and let them know right where he was. You figure that took a while too, hence the 10-15 min of shooting time he had. Plus he was firing through the door at them when they arrive at his room.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 12:53 PM   #52
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Amazing how hard you’ll try to push a narrative.
I don't think he's trying to push a narrative. I think he's trying to find an explanation like the entire country is. We want to know why.

Based on victimology and what we know of the shooter, I think the guy was a leftist too, that wanted to commit a crime so heinous that it jump started the discussion and possibly legislation for change.

I will explain the psychology behind my answer if anyone wants further explanation, but I can promise you I have no agenda other than the truth. In this case, it's the most plausible explanation.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:00 PM   #53
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I don't think he's trying to push a narrative. I think he's trying to find an explanation like the entire country is. We want to know why.

Based on victimology and what we know of the shooter, I think the guy was a leftist too, that wanted to commit a crime so heinous that it jump started the discussion and possibly legislation for change.

I will explain the psychology behind my answer if anyone wants further explanation, but I can promise you I have no agenda other than the truth. In this case, it's the most plausible explanation.
I dont think that word means what you think it means.

Just saying "ANTIFA" doesn't make it a plausible explanation without an introduction of bias. Yeah, the victims may be more conservative but nothing about the guys history states he was anything but. Engineers arent exactly commonly left. Guy was a fan of guns far before this incident. Guy made himself a millionaire as a real estate investor. Again, neither of those things scream "liberal hippie freak!"

No political proclamations as we know. While the event he targeted was country and would likely have blue collar, conservative fans, it was also the largest open-air event in his area. He didn't travel for this, he lived nearby. It could have simply been the most convenient event hosting a large crowd.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:05 PM   #54
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Sounds like a crank system

https://twitter.com/abbytheodros/sta...35456943607808

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Definitely an aftermarket crank system. The cadence varies. Gas operated systems dont do that and recoil systems are no like a sine curve. I've heard a Gatling gun (old school manual, not talking a modern minigun) and it sounded exactly like that. No shocker as the police have already said two of the guns were modified.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:05 PM   #55
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I dont think that word means what you think it means.

Just saying "ANTIFA" doesn't make it a plausible explanation without an introduction of bias. Yeah, the victims may be more conservative but nothing about the guys history states he was anything but. Engineers arent exactly commonly left. Guy was a fan of guns far before this incident. Guy made himself a millionaire as a real estate investor. Again, neither of those things scream "liberal hippie freak!"

No political proclamations as we know. While the event he targeted was country and would likely have blue collar, conservative fans, it was also the largest open-air event in his area. He didn't travel for this, he lived nearby. It could have simply been the most convenient event hosting a large crowd.
It could have been, but he still had a cause. 64 year olds don't do mass killings to become famous, that's what kids do. This man was acting out of a cause, based on current facts, that's my best guess. As more facts come out, then my guess may change. I can't think of another narrative that uses the facts is better.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:13 PM   #56
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It could have been, but he still had a cause. 64 year olds don't do mass killings to become famous, that's what kids do. This man was acting out of a cause, based on current facts, that's my best guess. As more facts come out, then my guess may change. I can't think of another narrative that uses the facts is better.
I take a shit for a cause, not feeling like I need to take a shit. So you are certainly right there. And, just for the record, being famous is a cause.

We dont know what his cause was yet. He could have been protesting the change in school lunches, he could have been following the commands of the chip he believes that aliens put in his head. Both are equally as plausible as a leftist who is mad a police brutality or Donald trump at this point.

He fired, as best we can tell, indiscriminately into a crowd of thousands of people using an existing gun collection from a room he was camped in for 4 days. So we know it was planned, that is ALL we know right now. Dont use this to confirm your own biases.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:15 PM   #57
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He was leftist.

There's pictures of him at an anti-Trump rally wearing a pink pussy hat that DaveB favors so much.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:16 PM   #58
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It could have been, but he still had a cause. 64 year olds don't do mass killings to become famous, that's what kids do. This man was acting out of a cause, based on current facts, that's my best guess. As more facts come out, then my guess may change. I can't think of another narrative that uses the facts is better.
Do you have training or work in a related field? I'm just curious what you're basing these opinions off of, whether it be formal training, internet reading, etc.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:18 PM   #59
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There he is. Or is that DaveB?

http://m.beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/...o-2494549.html
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:21 PM   #60
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Might want to pull your investigator gloves back out and type ENHANCE a few more times before being certain.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:31 PM   #61
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Might want to pull your investigator gloves back out and type ENHANCE a few more times before being certain.
It's on the internet!
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:36 PM   #62
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Do you have training or work in a related field? I'm just curious what you're basing these opinions off of, whether it be formal training, internet reading, etc.
I don't have any formal training no. I think I have been very clear to point out this is an educated guess based on current fact and that it is fluid.

I am basing this off of my own studies of psychology and criminal psychology. Mass shootings happen for a variety of reasons, of which the victims tell the most about the shooting.

1. Home killings - it's usually a family member
2. Gang killings - rival gangs
3. Workplace killings done to get at the place of work usually
4. Then there is this case; Stranger Killings.

Stranger killings usually fall into two categories

1. Notoriety - These are Aurora, Newtown type shooters. They are typically young and want to make a name for themselves in history. Usually because of ego. The Vegas shooter doesn't fit the mold for this. He was 64. Notoriety shootings are a young mans game.

2. Cause - These are like your Gabby Giffords or DC baseball field shootings. They are killing people because of a cause they believe in. This narrative is the most likely scenario for this shooting. Now the cause is the big mystery right? There isn't anything out there yet.

So again going back to the victims, this was a country music festival. Full of people that are stereo-typically right and pro 2a. Hence my theory. Sure it's loose, but it's still based in current facts and proven science. My guess is his cause was an narrative of gun control and being tired of the gun violence and his perception of nothing being done about it.

Now once more facts come out, I will be happy to modify my hypothesis. But believe me, I have no agenda other than the truth. I hate attacks on "liberals" as a whole, just as much as I hate attacks on "conservatives" as a whole as well. I'm just going with what makes the most sense to me without going all Alex Jones on this shit.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:39 PM   #63
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I don't have any formal training no. I think I have been very clear to point out this is an educated guess based on current fact and that it is fluid.
An "educated guess" by someone not educated in the matter beyond "my own studies" on the internet. So the DaveB school of vaccination expertise.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:42 PM   #64
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An "educated guess" by someone not educated in the matter beyond "my own studies" on the internet. So the DaveB school of vaccination expertise.
Just because someone didn't train me in it doesn't mean that I am not educated in it. I think you are confusing educated with "expert", which I am not. Thank you for playing.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:45 PM   #65
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Hmmm...so if this is correct, that seems to follow the same thought process that former VP at CBS had...?
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:45 PM   #66
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Just because someone didn't train me in it doesn't mean that I am not educated in it. I think you are confusing educated with "expert", which I am not. Thank you for playing.
Your defense of your bias here stinks like bullshit.

If you're so all knowing on the guy maybe you should call up the FBI and tell them what they apparently don't already know.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:53 PM   #67
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Just because someone didn't train me in it doesn't mean that I am not educated in it. I think you are confusing educated with "expert", which I am not. Thank you for playing.
No formal training means not educated, not formally. And, as you put it, not an expert.

So really your OPINION, which is all it is, is worth no more than anyone elses. So Ill stick with the facts that dismiss your alternate reality.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 01:54 PM   #68
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Your defense of your bias here stinks like bullshit.

If you're so all knowing on the guy maybe you should call up the FBI and tell them what they apparently don't already know.
and what is my bias then since you seem to understand me so well.

Why do I need to call up the FBI? I am sure that they know way more than I do since they likely have way more facts than I do.

Nice attack on me there though. It's shit like that, that is a problem in this country. I never attacked anyone I simply presented an opinion as to cause and was very careful to state that it was an opinion and I backed it up with the facts I used to arrive at it.

Then you come in and attack me for my opinion.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:21 PM   #69
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4. By the time first responders were on scene (for a shooting at the concert grounds), you can assume 8 minutes had passed. So he's already popped off a couple thousand rounds. As long as they are packed together he's gonna get kills. He's beyond the effective range of an AR firing .223 and at the edge of range shooting .308. It's the amount of lead he through out that allowed him to get kills.
I'm not getting into anything else... but that's just not accurate.

Lethal effective range of a AR firing 223 is around 400 yards, though it can go further

308 is closer to 800 yards

Depending on skill, he could have created far more casualties than he did, the breaks in between shooting being the biggest factor.

Using the scoped 308 that has been released, I feel uninterrupted for 30+ minutes, he could have doubled the body count.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:29 PM   #70
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and what is my bias then since you seem to understand me so well.

Why do I need to call up the FBI? I am sure that they know way more than I do since they likely have way more facts than I do.

Nice attack on me there though. It's shit like that, that is a problem in this country. I never attacked anyone I simply presented an opinion as to cause and was very careful to state that it was an opinion and I backed it up with the facts I used to arrive at it.

Then you come in and attack me for my opinion.
It's because Keboh is a lefty and he's worried how this looks for the extremists. Ryan Stewart is just a dickhed. Although I do agree with him, it's just your opinion. I think maybe it seemed like you were presenting it as something possibly a bit more, like a professional opinion.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:32 PM   #71
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I'm not getting into anything else... but that's just not accurate.

Lethal effective range of a AR firing 223 is around 400 yards, though it can go further

308 is closer to 800 yards

Depending on skill, he could have created far more casualties than he did, the breaks in between shooting being the biggest factor.

Using the scoped 308 that has been released, I feel uninterrupted for 30+ minutes, he could have doubled the body count.
400 yds is 1200ft. His main kill box was around 1000ft. I had this discussion with another gun enthusiast friend and we both agreed that given the situation, the number of casualties would have been far higher had he chosen a different gun. (than the .223) I haven't seen the scoped .308 photos. Was it another AR or something similar? Was it one of the guns configured for automatic fire? I've only seen the reports of a .223 and a .308 being used.

I'm guessing he had to take breaks for the amount of reloading he had to do, as well as switch between weapons and such. At 400 yds he's going to get much less fragmentation due to drop off with the .223 than he would with another round/gun setup.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:33 PM   #72
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It's because Keboh is a lefty and he's worried how this looks for the extremists. Ryan Stewart is just a dickhed. Although I do agree with him, it's just your opinion. I think maybe it seemed like you were presenting it as something possibly a bit more, like a professional opinion.
No that would be others simply adding their own agenda to my words. I say what I mean. If I had an expert opinion in something I would say, "in my expert opinion". Too many people communicate thinking they have to read into shit. It's dumb. I say what I mean.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:36 PM   #73
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Depending on skill, he could have created far more casualties than he did, the breaks in between shooting being the biggest factor.

Using the scoped 308 that has been released, I feel uninterrupted for 30+ minutes, he could have doubled the body count.
Based on the limited facts we currently have, I don't believe body count was the top goal. If it was, he would have loaded up a few barrels of diesel and flown his airplane into the crowd..
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:39 PM   #74
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It's because Keboh is a lefty and he's worried how this looks for the extremists. Ryan Stewart is just a dickhed. Although I do agree with him, it's just your opinion. I think maybe it seemed like you were presenting it as something possibly a bit more, like a professional opinion.
I am just asking because he is speaking with a manner of authority. I was curious about where that authority comes from, whether self-learned or formally educated. I didn't mean any insult by it.

I'm not worried how this looks. I think it's a bit ridiculous that you have to spin this as 'left vs right' when there isn't much evidence that points to that (at least not yet). I'm not making unsubstantiated assumptions, here.
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Unread 2017-10-03, 02:43 PM   #75
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I am just asking because he is speaking with a manner of authority. I was curious about where that authority comes from, whether self-learned or formally educated. I didn't mean any insult by it.

I'm not worried how this looks. I think it's a bit ridiculous that you have to spin this as 'left vs right' when there isn't much evidence that points to that (at least not yet). I'm not making unsubstantiated assumptions, here.
He was willing to die for his cause. His cause is that he wants guns off the streets. Proving a point. His attack on what woukd be considered to have a high percentage of right-leaning concert goers. His hope is that this will be a wake up moment for conservatives to get off the gun train.
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