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Unread 2011-01-02, 03:14 PM   #1
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Default Oil's surge in 2010 paves the way for $4 gasoline

What do you guys think?

I'm a firm believer in the price of oil is what it is because of market conditions and OPEC production manipulations. I do not buy into anyone's conspiracy theories about Bush, Obama, Big Oil, or whatever else people come up with like they can just pick up the phone and send fuel prices around the world up with the snap of their fingers. Oil is a GLOBAL commodity, and we (USA) are just one consumer. Plus, we don't produce half of our own oil anyways, so we pay what the market demands from it.

I think we're in a transitional period where the people who adapt will "win", and the people who do nothing but sit around and bitch about the government/big oil, blah, blah, blah trying so hard to keep the status quo will "lose". I really think we're on the verge of seeing the end of urban sprawl and the withering of the exurban outskirts. Foreclosures and home price drops will continue in exurbia until people move back to a reasonable distance from their jobs where car travel is an option or luxury and not a necessity as it is where some people live. We'll start to see more and more bicycles and scooters.

A few comments made by some people do piss me off though...

1) "Republican's take back the house and gas prices go shooting up." - Do I even need to explain how retarded that is?

2) "Obama is driving the cost up to crash the economy." - Again, retarded.

3) "Oil companies are making too much profit." - O'really? I always have to ask, how much profit should a company be allowed to make? Take Exxon for example. They are currently running an 8.27% profit margin. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=XOM+Key+Statistics Is that too high? Assuming Exxon was a not for profit company, that means if they did everything for cost, you fuel bill would be about 8% lower. Would that do it? And, what should be do about companies like Apple and their 21.48% profit margin? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oils-s...80888.html?x=0
Quote:
Oil's surge in 2010 paves the way for $4 gasoline
Price of oil rises 30 percent in 2010; gasoline prices could hit $4 a gallon in 2011

W YORK (AP) -- The price of oil is poised for another run at $100 a barrel after a global economic rebound sent it surging 34 percent since May. That could push gasoline prices to $4 a gallon by summer in some parts of the country, experts say.

Flying, shipping a package and ordering a pizza all likely would get more expensive in the new year if that happens and companies pass along higher energy costs. Some economists say rising energy prices will slow economic growth.

The U.S. is the world's largest oil consumer, but prices since spring have been on a roll primarily because of rising demand in developing countries, especially China. China's oil consumption is expected to rise 5 percent next year; that compares with less than 1 percent growth forecast for the U.S.

Benchmark oil for February delivery rose $1.54 on Friday to end the year at $91.38 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached $92.06 earlier in the day, the highest since Oct. 6, 2008. Nationwide gasoline pump prices now average $3.072 per gallon.

Gasoline expert Fred Rozell predicts that 15 states -- including Alaska, Hawaii, Connecticut and Rhode Island -- will see gasoline prices top $4 a gallon by Memorial Day. "A dollar more per gallon isn't that much -- probably about $750 more per year for each motorist, but there's a psychological aspect to gas prices," he said. "People are going to be up in arms about this."

Higher oil prices have fattened oil company profits. Excluding BP PLC, the four other major investor-owned oil companies posted combined profits of $59.7 billion in the first nine months of the year, a 49 percent increase from the year before. Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Corp. and Total SA are expected to earn $81 billion for the full year.

The fifth oil giant, BP, was held responsible for the largest offshore oil spill in U.S. history and booked $39.9 billion in charges related to the disaster. Excluding special expenses like the Gulf of Mexico spill, analysts say the company will still earn $20.2 billion in 2010.

"There's nothing this industry can't survive," Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit said.

The price of energy and other commodities shifted into high gear in late August when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the central bank was prepared to

stimulate the economy by buying government bonds. The $600 billion program didn't start until November, but speculators had already starting bidding up the value of asset classes like oil.

A further oil price spurt came in late November as it became clear that Congress was likely to extend for two more years tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is capable of raising output, if it needs to, by more than five million barrels per day. Still, Morgan Stanley estimates that the rising energy needs of China and other emerging economies will consume about half of that amount over the next two years. That could create supply pressures similar to those that preceded the price spike of 2008, when oil soared to $147 a barrel.

John Hofmeister, former president of Shell Oil and author of "Why We Hate The Oil Companies," predicts Americans will pay $5 per gallon for gasoline by 2012. Other experts say that's a long shot.

"That means oil close to $200" per barrel, analyst and trader Stephen Schork said. "We can see it, but we could also see a global depression, too."

In other Nymex trading Friday, natural gas for February delivery rose 6.7 cents to settle at $4.405 per 1,000 cubic feet. Unlike oil, natural gas prices are less than half where they were in 2008. That's due largely to the technological advances that allowed energy companies to unlock huge deposits in underground shale formations in the U.S.

Heating oil for January delivery rose 5.83 cents to settle at $2.5437 per gallon and gasoline for January delivery added 6.14 cents to settle at $2.4532 per gallon. In London, Brent crude increased $1.66 to settle at $94.75 per gallon.
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Unread 2011-01-02, 09:41 PM   #2
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None of what you posted, nor that post had, means shit.

IF everyone thinks it will go up, it will go up! OIL futures are bought and sold based on this, its simple, the people who own them now, want it to go up, so thus it will due to everyone thinking its going to go up, then, when futures peak, they sellllll, then it goes down.

Back and forth.

Energy futures should NOT be able to be traded on the market, this is the biggest problem with prices, there are assholes making billions on just for trading around paper / numbers on a computer.
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Unread 2011-01-02, 09:53 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by feraldarkness View Post
None of what you posted, nor that post had, means shit.

IF everyone thinks it will go up, it will go up! OIL futures are bought and sold based on this, its simple, the people who own them now, want it to go up, so thus it will due to everyone thinking its going to go up, then, when futures peak, they sellllll, then it goes down.

Back and forth.

Energy futures should NOT be able to be traded on the market, this is the biggest problem with prices, there are assholes making billions on just for trading around paper / numbers on a computer.
I hear what you're saying, and traders and speculators do have something to do with it, but at the end of the day, oil is worth what people are willing to pay for it. Just looking numbers wise, at the 2008 spike, oil about doubled, yet demand only dropped about 5%. If you're a business owner, what would you say about a product that did that?
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Unread 2011-01-02, 10:20 PM   #4
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5 days ago I watched it on CNBC , they said oil reserves are at a 10 month low and the ceo of gulf oil said we had a 1 in 4 chance of oil going to 147/again. I am pretty sure we will easily hit 125/ barrel . As long as Bernanke is printing money till the 3rd quarter of 11 as he stated we will see the market making a nice run up again. I think shortly there after it will tank again but we will see. They said there were problems in production in Sudan .

I got in around 36/barrel , I knew that low was all bullshit. 60 minutes had a special that described hedge funds like the california pension board buying up futures even when the demand wasn't there, that is what rammed the price up last time. This time I am not so sure speculation is ramming it up, if we are indeed at a 10 month low then we are paying for the real consumer driven demand. 4 dollar a gallon gas????? No fucking doubt about it!!!!
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Unread 2011-01-02, 10:32 PM   #5
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Luckily if that shit happens again I can just jump on the Dart rail and ride it out, pun intended..

Last time the shit got out of control I was forced to buy a new vehicle, but I am not going to let that happen again..
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Unread 2011-01-02, 10:50 PM   #6
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I've hedged oil costs by selling my exurban home and buying a foreclosed home 4 miles from work and 1 mile from everything else I need. An increase in gas prices from $3 to $4 per gallon now costs me a whopping $6 per month more to get to work.
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Unread 2011-01-02, 11:12 PM   #7
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I've hedged oil costs by selling my exurban home and buying a foreclosed home 4 miles from work and 1 mile from everything else I need. An increase in gas prices from $3 to $4 per gallon now costs me a whopping $6 per month more to get to work.
My roundtrip drive to the park and ride - 2 miles. My Roundtrip to the office 18 miles.

Once its nice enough I can just walk/ride a bike to the train station, so it gets even more economical then..
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Unread 2011-01-02, 11:21 PM   #8
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My roundtrip drive to the park and ride - 2 miles. My Roundtrip to the office 18 miles.

Once its nice enough I can just walk/ride a bike to the train station, so it gets even more economical then..
I'd actually ride to work if I could get there without being too sweaty. Riding home wouldn't matter.
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Unread 2011-01-02, 11:24 PM   #9
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I follow the Dave Ramsey plan , debt free is the way to go, I owe a lil bit on a heloc but that is about it. Otherwise I would have a tough time paying the house payment that I did. Hell just buying food is crazy at our house. We buy eggs from Sam's club in the big case, it was 12 dollars and now it is 22 dollars. I'm sure its all in energy costs getting it to market.

The increase that is
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Unread 2011-01-04, 12:18 PM   #10
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my diesel jetta gets almost 50 mpg, i'm not worried
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Unread 2011-01-04, 11:24 PM   #11
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what doesnt make sense to me is oil is about $90 a barrel and gas is the same amount when it was $147 a barrel
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Unread 2011-01-04, 11:25 PM   #12
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what doesnt make sense to me is oil is about $90 a barrel and gas is the same amount when it was $147 a barrel
Gas was $4 when it was $147.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 10:44 AM   #13
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Paid $3.49 yesterday for 93. So I don't see it being too hard for it to hit $4 in a few short months.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 10:53 AM   #14
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Gas was $4 when it was $147.
i dont remember gas ever being $4 in KS
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Unread 2011-01-05, 11:10 AM   #15
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i dont remember gas ever being $4 in KS
I do. It wasn't very long, though. We were mostly right under.

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Unread 2011-01-05, 12:22 PM   #16
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Oh I remember when gas was $4/gallon. I had an RX-8. That's something you never forget.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 12:26 PM   #17
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Oh I remember when gas was $4/gallon. I had an RX-8. That's something you never forget.
And I had a GTO! Talk about your bad timing
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Unread 2011-01-05, 12:39 PM   #18
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I can't wait for $5 a gallon with my tbss
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Unread 2011-01-05, 12:41 PM   #19
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I can't wait for $5 a gallon with my tbss
It's not like you'll own it past February anyways.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 04:04 PM   #20
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I hate all this BS about gas. It goes up because it trades higher. Then it will drop. I love how right after Obama got elected that gas went back down to 1.61. Why was that again? Everyone sold out on oil. I just think its funny. Gas should only be about $2 a gallon. If everyone decided to not fill up for a week would gas prices go down since demand went down? NOPE. They might a few cents but thats it.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 05:28 PM   #21
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I hate all this BS about gas. It goes up because it trades higher. Then it will drop. I love how right after Obama got elected that gas went back down to 1.61. Why was that again? Everyone sold out on oil. I just think its funny. Gas should only be about $2 a gallon. If everyone decided to not fill up for a week would gas prices go down since demand went down? NOPE. They might a few cents but thats it.
Why do you think it should only cost $2?
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Unread 2011-01-05, 05:29 PM   #22
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Why do you think it should only cost $2?
How did it get down to $1.61 about 3 years ago? Any idea?
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Unread 2011-01-05, 05:40 PM   #23
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How did it get down to $1.61 about 3 years ago? Any idea?
Recession, decreased demand, strengthing dollar. Now there's improving economic conditions, increasing demand, OPEC not increasing output, and a weakening dollar.

Scratch that. Bush called Cheney and he called Haliburton who raised the prices the Arabs were charging us for OUR oil.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 06:04 PM   #24
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Recession, decreased demand, strengthing dollar. Now there's improving economic conditions, increasing demand, OPEC not increasing output, and a weakening dollar.

Scratch that. Bush called Cheney and he called Haliburton who raised the prices the Arabs were charging us for OUR oil.
Dumping a bunch of unbacked dollars into the market also helped. Not to mention the borrow and spend Congress. But that can be summed up under the inflation tag.
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Unread 2011-01-05, 06:15 PM   #25
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How did it get down to $1.61 about 3 years ago? Any idea?
barrel price hit 29 I believe , reserves were flooded, they had ships sitting off the coast with no place to unload, today that is not the case, 2 weeks ago we hit a 10 month low
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