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Unread 2021-01-31, 10:08 PM   #76
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I bought AMC today. I'm using stash to do it because of RH blocking the purchase.
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Unread 2021-02-02, 11:37 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by TheCollectorKC View Post
I mean you have me at a disadvantage for explanation, because you just named what drives the rise and fall of all investments, not just bitcoin. The market exists to speculate, to removing that aspect from investing, what do you have left? Innovation? 95% of all stocks out there would cease to exist tomorrow if they were held only to their ability to innovate.

You could take Gold, Silver, Precious Metals, and Diamonds out of that sentence, and replace with Bitcoin, and it still holds true.

But Gold does just that, too. It was just at like, 2100ish in August of 2011, fell to 1150ish in November of 2015, rose back up to nearly 2000ish in August of 2020, and is now decline, again. In fact it failed to create a new high from the January '80 high of nearly 2300, and we are firmly in a descending channel on gold, as more of it is produced.

I think when I say safe and you say safe, we're talking about two different things. I'm referring there to the safety of the investment, literally. You're not hacking bitcoin, its not getting stolen from you, nobody can hold a gun to your head and scare you into stealing your bitcoins.

I think you're referring to safe, as in the price of Gold staying rather consistent, and I think if you've ever looked at the price of gold over time, you'll find that, like literally every investment in the world, it is anything but consistent.

There's also the issue of understanding inherent value. You could make the statement that bitcoin is backed by nothing, and you'd be wrong. Its backed by cost to mine it, much like Gold is. If price drops below that threshold, people stop mining it, and its supply dwindles, driving up prices in the supply chain, and the price returns back to profitable operation. The same also works in Bitcoin, only if people stop mining it, the blockchain ceases to operate, meaning you can't send it, can't cash it, can't do anything with it. With gold, you can trade the secondary market because its physical and you can take it with you, and to a degree you can do the same with wallets, but the point is that you can't transfer the money between those wallets to spend it, without the miners getting paid, which creates this kind of symbiotic relationship between the users and miners, so that the chain is always moving forward. Unlike Gold, however, Bitcoin can be updated to become a better version of itself, and can adapt to a consensus decision on changes. Gold hasn't changed in thousands of years.

At the end of the day, a thing only has value if people believe it has value. Gold, Diamonds, Bitcoin, Lobsters, its all relative to its interest. I brought up Lobster because not so long ago it was considered to be peasants food. Now we pay a premium for it!
The peaks and valleys in gold that you mention correlate with times when the US is in and out of recession. The peaks are during recessions, dips are when the market is doing well. There is some reliability or predictability there in that sense.



I willingly admit my ignorance to crypto, but where I get lost, is what do you look at to determine when to buy? There has to be more than pure speculation for it to be a sound investment rather than just a guess. Even gambling uses educated guesses.



With stocks, you can look at certain metrics to help determine if it is over or under valued, look at the operating environment the company is in, what may be on the horizon, etc., and that helps you determine where it may go. Similar to when people think the market will crash, they will look at things like gold and silver, and that will drive those up.



I don't see the peaks and valleys the same as gold, because the examples shown, have a 45% swing over the course of years. 45% over the course of a few years is a lot, but Bitcoin has an 800% swing over the course of less than a year. What drove that? Why is it falling now?
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Unread 2021-02-02, 09:00 PM   #78
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The peaks and valleys in gold that you mention correlate with times when the US is in and out of recession. The peaks are during recessions, dips are when the market is doing well. There is some reliability or predictability there in that sense.
They aren't always correlated, no. There are times when the markets move and gold doesn't, and times when gold moves and the market doesn't. They are certainly rarer than when gold contrasts the market, but the two of them both move in the same direction. In this same way, Bitcoin anchors the Cryptomarket. When The market booms, so too does Bitcoin, but not at the same growth rate as others, and when it contracts, that money enters Bitcoin and loses less than had they stayed in other others. In this sense, it exactly parallels Gold as a store of value. One being finite (BTC) and the other being tangible (Gold). The difference of course being that I could hold a gun to your head to steal your gold, and you cannot hold a gun to my head to steal my BTC. Comparative to gains, Bitcoin has outgained every major index, and every store of value since its inception.

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I willingly admit my ignorance to crypto, but where I get lost, is what do you look at to determine when to buy? There has to be more than pure speculation for it to be a sound investment rather than just a guess. Even gambling uses educated guesses.
The cost to mine it. Pretty simple, right? But most people don't get that, they don't understand what "mining" is, they don't understand what blockchain is, and they don't understand that Bitcoin is a trustless, decentralized, immutable ledger, where every transaction that has ever happened, is reviewable, and viewable by all parties, on the blockchain. Now, I don't know "who" everyone is, because that bit is encrypted, but I can see that Wallet A sent wallet B 123 amount of BTC on 2/2/21 on block 688,120 for all of eternity, or until we stop running the BTC blockchain. Its the collective interest of having an open, completely transparent ledger that all individuals trust, that no one individual controls, that keeps it going, and that need to keep it going is what keeps miners operating, and that cost to operate, is what gives it value. So in truth, its both the cost of the operation to mine a bitcoin, and the demand for a trustless, immutable, decentralized product, that determines at least the BASE value of Bitcoin, before speculative interests get involved. The good news is there are calculators out there where we can simply plug in our electric rates to find out if its profitable to mine bitcoin, and determine miner profitability abroad.

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With stocks, you can look at certain metrics to help determine if it is over or under valued, look at the operating environment the company is in, what may be on the horizon, etc., and that helps you determine where it may go. Similar to when people think the market will crash, they will look at things like gold and silver, and that will drive those up.
I don't think anybody in the history of ever has just arbitrarily looked at silver and determined a market would crash. They certainly might use it as one of a thousand indicators to make that determination, but it has literally NEVER been such a large indicator that it alone has driven price action. I would also generally make that same statement about Gold, though we can sometimes glean some information about inflation hedges from it.But yes, there are metrics you can use to determine value, determine direction, determine operating environment, what's on the horizon, etc, like any other stock would.


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I don't see the peaks and valleys the same as gold, because the examples shown, have a 45% swing over the course of years. 45% over the course of a few years is a lot, but Bitcoin has an 800% swing over the course of less than a year. What drove that? Why is it falling now?
You're comparing an apple to flamethrower by comparing gold swings to Bitcoin swings, but I'll take a swing at an explanation. Most notably I'd refer to the age of Bitcoin, which is an infant by Gold's standard which has been around for millennia. Its got a smaller market cap, which makes it more susceptible to wild swings on price action, and doesn't really have much of a derivatives market, so betting against it is really out the door for the time being, which I'm okay with, but will likely come back. In 2017 during the bitcoin crash, it crashed the day of the CME openings on BTC futures, which was more than coincidental timing. By that point both the CBOE and CME had futures contracts available, but one of them, not sure which, shut down their futures trading due to low interest. Largely because bitcoin interest is mostly a one sided affair. Due to this low market cap by comparison, institutions buy their BTC on the OTC market from (but not through) the exchanges, so that the price action doesn't disrupt the BTC price on the exchange, which would go absolutely wild if suddenly someone bought 10,000 BTC on Coinbase, as an example, a 7,300 BTC purchase on coinbase Pro right now would put the price at 63,192, of course, that doesn't account for orders that will attempt to execute based on the action itself.

As for why it swung 800% in the course of a year, that answer seems pretty simple. It was being oversold and undervalued. The onboarding of institutions helps considerably. Previously, the company controlling your 401k, couldn't buy Bitcoin as they didn't have access to it, and a legal framework wasn't in place to allow for custodianship of it. Now there is. Consider all the legal framework built around Gold, stocks, bonds, etc. That framework doesn't exist, not yet at least. From 2017-Now, we saw that adoption to a small degree from the legal sense, and states and federal regulations have paved the way for that access. But its also not an equitable comparison to Gold's framework now, so one can only expect it to go up long term. But that doesn't mean it can't go down, either. We're seeing a selloff now because people are taking profit, as like you said, its gained over 800% in a year. Markets have their cycles, and we're nearing the end of this one, unless bitcoin turns around and starts making new highs and breaks out of its current channel, and that's entirely possible. You have to remember the same guys who talk for 12 hours a day on the networks pitching Apple, Tesla, etc. are the same guys who think Bitcoin eventually goes to $100,000 and beyond. We could be having this conversation 5 years from now laughing at the buying opportunity we had below 100,000 and didn't pull the trigger because we were busy discussing the price of gold.

Currently, Gold, Bitcoin, and the total market are in decline, though, so its going to be a bad time investing in any of it.
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Unread 2021-02-08, 05:54 PM   #79
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Ya, I need to do more research on the Mary Jane stuff. Would be nice to snag a good ETF in that section. I know that many KCSR's are way into Crypto... sadly I am to dumb to understand the coin itself. However I can grasp the mining aspect and transaction duties, so thus I invested in companies related to that. Hopefully, it pans out long term.
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Who has the in on a good marijuana company to get in with?

I threw some play money into Akerna (KERN) last week. They are a software company out of Denver that has different types of software packages for the weed industry. Both inventory (seed to sale) and compliance. They also got SAP certified certified last week. I figured with legalization getting pushed at state and now at the federal level, I think it has a pretty strong upside.



Obviously this is not financial advice - that is not my industry. Do your own research and make your own guesses. I just have some spare $$ that I like to speculate with.
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Unread 2021-02-10, 02:51 PM   #80
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I normally just buy stocks, but the last couple months have been playing around with options. Pretty addicting when you get it right. Things move one way, or the other really fast. I bought a $10 Mar19c on OPRA on Monday. Today the stock is up 18.5%, but my contract is up 152%. Nice.
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Unread 2021-02-11, 01:44 PM   #81
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I'm trying my first option as well. $1 call SNDL 3/19. And that stock went way up last two days and then cratered this morning.

Everything I touch dies.

My favorite color is red.


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Unread 2021-02-15, 10:17 PM   #82
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I'm trying my first option as well. $1 call SNDL 3/19. And that stock went way up last two days and then cratered this morning.

Everything I touch dies.

My favorite color is red.

From the looks of that screenshot, you're buying r/WSB stuff, and that's always going to end in absolute disaster, unless you're looking for an opportunity to sell them their insurance, then its quite profitable (Long Put options).
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Unread 2021-02-16, 10:50 AM   #83
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Am aware. Wanted to fuck around and find out. Not that mad about it, I cleared enough on gme to cover this
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Unread 2021-02-21, 08:26 PM   #84
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I bought $1000 of GME Friday. Probably stupid, but here we go.
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Unread 2021-02-21, 10:50 PM   #85
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Lol are we doing this again
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Unread 2021-02-22, 08:30 AM   #86
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Lol are we doing this again
Maybe?! Worth a shot. It’s at least going to go up a little with a super small chance it does something amazing, so bought at 43 and have a stop loss set at 35. Still well within my original winnings. Gambling, but you can’t win the powerball unless you buy a ticket.
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Unread Yesterday, 03:22 AM   #87
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Good luck with Gamestop, I see that reddit guy bought back into it....

I still have around 110 shares of AMC. I am just holding it. In the red quite a bit for that for sure haha. Looks like its going up a little bit. Rumor about Amazon buying them. Plus Theaters open back up in New York in March...

Got into CCIV around $30 took some profits on that. Have only 8 shares left of CCIV, going to wait for the merger to go through (tomorrow) with Lucid and if it bumps up to around $80 a share I am selling the rest. All my other stocks are in the red.

Once Biden's $2 tril goes through in March, I can see the stock market doing pretty well.
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Unread Yesterday, 10:46 AM   #88
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Good luck with Gamestop, I see that reddit guy bought back into it....

I still have around 110 shares of AMC. I am just holding it. In the red quite a bit for that for sure haha. Looks like its going up a little bit. Rumor about Amazon buying them. Plus Theaters open back up in New York in March...

Got into CCIV around $30 took some profits on that. Have only 8 shares left of CCIV, going to wait for the merger to go through (tomorrow) with Lucid and if it bumps up to around $80 a share I am selling the rest. All my other stocks are in the red.

Once Biden's $2 tril goes through in March, I can see the stock market doing pretty well.
I don’t really expect anything out of GME, but do acknowledge the long shot possibly that the conspiracy theories come to fruition. Not betting any “real” money on it, but FOMO put me back into a small position.

Hope AMC does well. They “should” once things start opening up, which they are.
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Unread Yesterday, 05:27 PM   #89
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DPV never sold. He only doubled down his 50k to 100k shares.

I bought more AMC at 6.35, bringing my average up to like 5.50. Looking like I'll lose my ass on my sndl call so that'd cool.
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Unread Today, 11:04 AM   #90
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Good day today. My play account (currently representing 0.3% of all my stocks) is +20%. Currently holding TRVG, SENS, GME, AMC, and GE. Best play has been the 12cJUN18 calls on GE I bought a couple weeks ago, which are up 120%.
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